Daily PUMA Column - Commentary by Alessandro Machi

Sunday, March 12, 2023

Using Math to prove the 2022 Recall Gascon Petition gathered enough Valid Signatures.

Judicial Watch has pulled the scab off of a very serious situation involving Registrars who do not keep their voter rolls current. It becomes increasingly difficult to remove an elected official through a recall petition drive because the 10% Petition signature threshold fraudulently inflates as the number of no longer valid voters kept on the voter rolls keeps rising.

A 2017 Judical watch lawsuit results in over 1.2 million voters being removed from the 2023 L.A. registrar voter rolls.  

However, the 1.2 million L.A. voters being removed opens up a Pandora's box of issues related to what is the correct number of valid signatures needed for a Recall Petition campaign.

According to the LA Times, To put Gascon's job on the ballot, the campaign seeking his ouster needed to gather 566,857 valid signatures by mid-July (2022); the figure reflects 10% of the people who were eligible to vote in the election cycle when he won office in November 2020. The L.A. County registrar-recorder/county clerk's office said about the 520,000 of the signatures submitted were valid.

When the L.A. Registrar's office attempted to quantify how many total signatures the Recall Gascon Petition needed to gather, what L.A. Voter roll total were they using? Was the L.A. Registrar's office using a 2020 voters roll that had minimally removed voters from their voter's rolls going back a decade or longer, or were they using an updated 2020 voters roll that included subtracting a significant percentage of the 1.2 million voters that were recently removed from the LA voters roll?

When the LA Registrar gave the Recall Gascon Committee a signature goal of 566,857 signatures they needed to collect, how many of the 1.2 million no longer valid voters were still being counted to inaccurately inflate the Petition Signature Requirement? 

The difference in Recall signatures needed to remove an elected official before and after 1.2 million voters has been removed is statistically astounding. 5,668,570 total L.A. voters requires 10%, or 566,857 valid petition signatures for the recall to be approved. However, since we know that 600,000 L.A. voters had not voted in 10 years or longer as of 2022, we can at the very least remove 60,000 petition signatures from the total needed for the Gascon recall to have had enough signatures.

The properly updated number of petition signatures needed to qualify would have been at the most 10% of 5,068,570, or 506,857. The Gascon Recall Committee produced 520,000 valid signatures, also known as 13,143 signatures MORE than what should have been the 2020 Gascon Recall Petition minimum needed to qualify. 

The 600,000 L.A. voter roll reduction is a VERY CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT. As of 2020 when Gascon ran for office, the actual number of L.A. voters who should have been removed from the L.A. voter's rolls was probably closer to 650,000 to 750,000, which would have meant 65,000 to 75,000 less valid petition signatures than the L.A. Registrar's office had mandated.

The question that a court needs to decide is what is a fair estimate of the total L.A. voters roll as of 2020 when Gascon was elected. I doubt any court would claim the increasing numbers of L.A. voters who were no longer eligible in 2020 was zero, nor would the court agree that all 1.2 million voters should be subtracted from the L.A. Voters roll in 2020. Clearly a number in the middle would be a fair result, and if that number is 400,000 or higher out of 1.2 million, the Gascon Petition recall already has enough valid signatures. Considering that 600,000 voters had not voted since 2012, 650,000 to 750,000 sure seems like a conservative estimate, which is well above the 400,000 threshold needed for the Recall Gascon Petition to have been accepted, AS IS.

No matter how one slices it, it looks like the Gascon Recall petition already has enough Valid signatures with at the very least, 13,143 petition signatures to spare. 

This is the follow up article to the 1.2 million voters removed from the L.A. Voters Roll could reverse the failed 2022 George Gascon recall.

 

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